Accuracy
Every gameweek's projections are frozen at the deadline and scored against what actually happened — next to FPL's own expected points, frozen at the same moment. No retro-fitting: once a deadline passes, the frozen file can't be touched.
The ledger opens after GW1
GW1 projections are already being frozen — 564 players across 10 fixtures, refreshed nightly until the deadline locks them for good. Once the gameweek finishes and FPL confirms the points, the first scorecard appears here automatically.
- GW1 — locks Fri 21 Aug, 18:30 UK · 564 players · 10 fixtures
- GW2 — locks Fri 28 Aug, 18:30 UK · 564 players · 10 fixtures
- GW3 — locks Fri 4 Sept, 18:30 UK · 564 players · 10 fixtures
- GW4 — locks Sat 12 Sept, 13:30 UK · 564 players · 10 fixtures
- GW5 — locks Fri 18 Sept, 18:30 UK · 564 players · 10 fixtures
- GW6 — locks Sat 10 Oct, 13:30 UK · 564 players · 10 fixtures
Until then, the About page carries the historical backtest — how this engine scored on three full past seasons.
How this is measured
Frozen at the deadline. After every nightly refresh, the engine writes each upcoming gameweek's projections to a frozen file — and refuses to touch that file once the gameweek's deadline has passed. What gets scored is exactly what this site was serving when the deadline hit.
Scored when final. A gameweek is scored only after FPL marks it finished and data-checked (bonus confirmed). Double-gameweek players are compared on their full week; fixtures postponed out of a gameweek are excluded and disclosed in the fixtures column, never quietly dropped.
The baselines. FPL publishes its own expected points (ep_next) — it's frozen at the same deadline and scored the same way. Rank correlation is measured within each position among players who actually played; RMSE counts everyone projected, including the ones who never left the bench.
season 2026-27 · scored 2026-08-01 01:15 · latest freeze 2026-07-31 15:28