3
xPts GW1–6
9.3
Start likelihood
41%
xPts / £m
2.06
Why this rating
sub-scores are percentiles (0-100) within position over the projection window; the headline rating is a weighted blend with weights fitted against realized points in backtests
Strongest: DC floor · Weakest: Bonus
Clean sheets
7
Attack
0
DC floor
17
Bonus
5
Value
0
Minutes
0
Percentiles within position over the projection window.
Expected points by source
1.6GW1@BHA
1.4GW2ARS
1.6GW3@HUL
1.7GW4NFO
1.4GW5@TOT
1.5GW6BRE
AppearanceGoalsAssistsDef. contributionClean sheetsBonusCardsConceded
| GW | Fixture | xPts | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @BHA | 1.6 | 4.9 |
| 2 | ARS | 1.4 | 4.6 |
| 3 | @HUL | 1.6 | 5.0 |
| 4 | NFO | 1.7 | 5.1 |
| 5 | @TOT | 1.4 | 4.6 |
| 6 | BRE | 1.5 | 4.8 |
Fixture run · model difficulty
BHA*4ARS4HUL*3NFO2TOT*3BRE3
1 easiest – 5 hardest · * = away
season 2026-27 · computed 2026-08-21 02:31 · snapshot 20260821T020500Z · recomputed hourly